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SCC Preview: Can Harvick overcome a rough year?

By: Mark Garrow  (archive)
Jayski.com

Mark Garrow previews the LifeLock.com 400 for Stock Car Challenge, and notes Kevin Harvick's great history at Chicagoland.

Ever since Chicagoland Speedway opened in 2001, the 1.5-mile track has been a special place for Kevin Harvick. The 33-year-old Harvick won the inaugural race, then backed it up the following year with another victory. In eight races, he has led 282 laps, third on the all-time list. He has also posted five top-5s and six top-10s, and recorded a NASCAR-best 7.375 average finish at the Midwest facility. If Harvick has any hopes of turning around his disappointing season that has him 26th in the standings, this is the track to do it.

Harvick has three straight top-5s at the track. He finished third last year and fourth in 2006-07. However, he has stumbled in the four Cup races held on 1.5-mile tracks this year. His best finish was fourth at Atlanta in March. His only other top-20 occurred at Las Vegas, he placed 12th.

Despite Harvick's success at Chicagoland, turning his season around at the speedway won't be an easy task. The top three drivers in the standings also perform well at Chicagoland and they, along with the Busch brothers, are on a hot streak.

Discounting Tony Stewart's All-Star victory, the Indiana native captured his second win in the past six races at Daytona; he has also posted five top-5s and six top-10s in that time span. In the past four Chicagoland races, the point standings leader has three top-5s, including a victory in 2007. He's tied with Harvick for all-time wins at the track (two) and with Harvick and Jimmie Johnson for the most all-time top-10s (six). Stewart is also the track's all-time leader in top-5s with six in eight starts, and has led the most laps at the speedway (395). On the 1.5-mile tracks this year, Stewart is batting .500, having posted top-10s in two races. He also leads in the number of laps completed this season. But when it comes to the amount of points earned this year on superspeedways, that honor belongs to Jeff Gordon with 1,664. Stewart is second in that category with 1,661. Third is Johnson with 1,632. Johnson, however, has led the greatest percentage of laps this year (17.08%). And when it comes to Chicagoland, Johnson and Gordon rank at the top with Stewart.

In the past four Chicago races Johnson, who's third in the standings, has two top-5s, including a second last year, and three top-10s. However, his finishes have been sporadic on 1.5-mile tracks this season. He's recorded two top-10s, including a second at Texas, but he was 13th in the rain-shortened Charlotte race and struggled to a 24th at Las Vegas. Gordon, who's second in the standings, is tied with Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt Jr. for the most lead-lap finishes (seven). He also won the 2006 race, had a top-10 in 2007 and placed 11th last year. In this year's 1.5-mile races, Gordon has two top-5s, including a victory at Texas, and a top-10 at Las Vegas. His worst finish has been 14th at Charlotte.

The Busch brothers have also performed well at Chicagoland and the orther 1.5-mile tracks this season. Kyle Busch is the LifeLock.com 400 defending champion, and took third in the 2006 event. He finished outside the top 10 in 2005 and 2007, placing 14th and 13th, respectively. This year, he won at Las Vegas and had a top-10 at Charlotte. He finished 18th at Texas and Atlanta. Kurt Busch, who's fourth in the standings, has produced three top-10s in the past four Chicago races. This year, he has a victory on a 1.5-mile track -- Atlanta -- and a top-10 at Texas.

There are a few other drivers who could have strong runs as well, like Brian Vickers, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kenseth and, yes, Dale Jr. In the past four Chicago races, Vickers has recorded two top-10s and a 13th. Greg Biffle finished fourth last year and 11th in the 2005-07 races. This year, Biffle has two top-10s in four races on the 1.5-mile tracks. Montoya also has two top-10s in those same four races this year. At Chicago, Montoya recorded a 15th in 2007 and an 18th last year. A runner-up in 2005, Kenseth duplicated that feat in 2007 and finished seventh a year ago. He was 10th in the race at Charlotte and before that ran fifth at Texas. Even though Earnhardt has only one top-10 on the 1.5-mile tracks this season, he won the 2005 Chicago race, finished fifth the following year, took 16th last season and 19th in 2007. Like Harvick, Earnhardt could use Chicago to turn around his frustrating season that has him 21st in the standings.

Note: Biffle finished 11th three years in a row (2005, 2006 and 2007) at Chicagoland Speedway. Then, he jumped to fourth in 2008. His teammate Carl Edwards has a third place as his only top-15 run in the past four races at Chicagoland, but has run well in the past three races on mile-and-a-half tracks: Charlotte (4th), Texas (10th) and Atlanta (3rd).

Big bucks (SCC value 21.0 and up)

If you have Stewart (24.7) don't let go, and if you want to "buy" him, it might already be too late to have enough dollars left to put together a strong team if you do. I also like Gordon (23.5) and Johnson (23.8). If you're looking to create cap space, Kurt Busch (22.9) could help and brother Kyle Busch (21.9) even more so. Kenseth (21.5) could be this category's best bargain.

Serious coin (SCC value 18.0 to 21.0)

I think the top driver in this group is Mark Martin (20.7), but I also think you could get some help from Vickers (19.7) and David Reutimann (20.3), withClint Bowyer (20.4) andJamie McMurray (18.4) potential dark horses.

Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 18.0)

Three of the "budget busters" could come up big this week. You can't ignore Harvick (16.9) and his Chicagoland record. I also think Martin Truex Jr. (17.3), David Ragan (16.0) and Joey Logano (17.7) are going to need some serious consideration. Another possible buster is A.J. Allmendinger (16.1).

Debit … not credit

Up on the most expensive list this week, not sure what to do about Montoya (21.2). Just above him will be several stronger picks and below him Martin and Vickers will probably be better picks. Plus, Montoya is going to play it conservative now that he's 11th in points, and finally has some breathing space between himself and 13th. In the middle group, this has been a good track for Dale Jr., but his "mojo" can't get much worse. So, until this team puts together a couple of solid races, it's probably best to stay away from him. In budget-friendly territory, Elliott Sadler (17.9) had a great run at Daytona, which was nice to see, but isn't even in the top 25 in points scored on superspeedways this year.

Guru Garrow's gang

I'm going to stick with, at this point, Stewart and Kenseth. I'm going to trade Bowyer and Dale Jr., replacing them with Kyle Busch and Harvick. I'll keep Ragan my budget pick for the time being.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.



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